cEV 331f3c

1. Chip Expected Value.

The Big Idea 1i65g

The prevailing school of thought for approaching poker tournament strategy in a theoretically optimal way involves "cEV," an analysis of whether the play being made or discussed is likely to allow the player to win or lose chips.

Discussions of cEV tend to disregard the notion of "tournament life" and ICM considerations.

Discrepancies 6uy1z

A common misconception regarding tournament play is that cEV is always equal to real money EV ($EV). While cEV is roughly equal to $EV in the early and middle stages of an payout structure.

Calculating cEV 5o403g

Let's say you're in the middle stages of a tournament and in fold.

Before we make any calculations, we must assign a steal your blinds with 70% of hands, but given that 40K is two-thirds of his stack, he will call reasonably tight. So using Poker Stove, you get:

33.941% {Ad3d} 66.059% {22+,A8s+,KQs,A9o+}

Based on these calculations, the possible outcomes are:

1. You fold: after posting the stack is now 47.8K.

2. You shove, antes] = 54.8K] x 82.1% likelihood = 44.9K cEV.

3. You shove, BB calls, you win (17.9% calling x 33.941% chance winning = happens 6.07%): 101.8K x 6.07% = 6.8K cEV.

4. You shove, BB calls, you lose (17.9% calling x 66.059% = happens 11.8%): 0 cEV.

Now, you add up all the possible results assuming you shove and get: 44.9K + 6.8K + 0 = 51.4K.

51.4K (total cEV of shoving - 47.8K (total cEV of folding) = 3.6K (total cEV)

So, based on the assumed ranges, shoving in this spot will show positive chip expected value, but not by a very wide margin.